The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 set targets to reduce Scotland’s emissions of all greenhouse gases (GHG) to net-zero by 2045 at the latest, with interim targets for reductions of at least 56% by 2020, 75% by 2030, 90% by 2040, compared to the 1990 baseline level.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) published their 2020 Progress Report a few weeks ago. The document summarises Scotland’s progress against these targets, looking at emissions in 2018 compared to the previous decade, and outlines key priorities for the coming years to achieve the 2030 target.

Progress to date

Over the last decade the Scottish economy has decarbonised faster than any other G20 economy. In 2018, total Scottish emissions were 45% lower than 1990s levels.

The largest driver for this change has been the decarbonisation of the power sector, with emissions decreasing by 85% between 2008 and 2018, largely as a result of the three-fold increase in electricity generated from renewables. The sector accounted for 5% of total Scottish emissions in 2018. A summary of the other sectors is provided below:

• Transport remains the main source of GHG emissions, contributing 36% towards total emissions in 2018. Surface transport and aviation have seen increases in emissions of 10% and 57%, respectively, since 1990.
• Industry is still a key source of GHG emissions, contributing 27% in 2018, although total emissions from this sector has nearly halved since 1990 largely due to reductions across all parts of industry – notably the manufacturing and fossil fuel supply sectors.
• Buildings derived emissions account for 21% in 2018, a reduction of 16% since 2008, due to improved energy efficiency.
• Waste emissions have fallen by 72% since 1990 due to increased recycling and a reduction in waste produced.
• Emissions from the agriculture and land use change and forestry sector were 13% lower in 2018 compared to 2008. Whilst the net land use sink grew slightly by 1% over this period, the amount of CO₂ Scotland’s forests removed from the atmosphere each year fell by 10.3% over this period.

Key priorities for the future

As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, the 2020 targets are likely to be met. Reduced energy demand during lockdown periods is expected to result in a 5-10% fall in global emissions in 2020. However, these effects are transient and are not necessarily an accurate indication that the underlying drivers for longer-term emissions reductions have been met.

It is clear the 2030 target will be challenging to achieve. As Scotland has achieved significant emissions reductions from electricity generation, future reductions to meet targets will be largely dependent on the decarbonisation of the other sectors, mainly through electrification and use of renewable-derived energy.

Five milestones of the 11 set out in the 2019 Progress Report have been fully achieved, with partial progress on another three. The report sets out the overall strategic policies, objectives and milestones for the coming years, including:

• Delivering an update to the Climate Change Plan which takes into account recent progress, seeks to deliver meaningful reductions outside of the power sector, and considers the implications of COVID-19.
• Delivering a strategy for low-carbon heat and energy efficiency in Scotland’s buildings.
• Decarbonising transport by encouraging behavioural change, uptake of active and sustainable means of travel, and promoting ’20 minute’ neighbourhoods.
• Accelerating investments in low-carbon technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage, renewables and hydrogen) and climate adaptation infrastructure
• Maximise carbon sequestration by increasing tree planting to 18,000 ha per year, and peatland restoration to 20,000 ha per year.
• Strengthen policies in local plans relating to climate change and adaptation.

LUC is excited to see how Scotland will continue to work towards achieving climate targets. We are proud to have helped secure consent for nearly 1800 MW of wind energy developments across Scotland. Much of our recent research for the Scottish Government and partner agencies has focused on issues around carbon reduction and our recent survey of Scottish businesses explored both the short and longer term impacts of the pandemic on business travel and journeys to work. LUC is increasingly helping local authorities map out strategies to achieve net zero, informing local plans and corporate strategies, and is currently undertaking an environmental assessment of the Scottish Government’s update to the Climate Change Plan. We have also helped organisations like Calmac Ferries identify and address climate risks to their operations, helping to build resilience to the climate changes that are already happening.